下記のコモディティはすでに高値圏にあるということで、ジム・ロジャーズにとって新たに買う魅力的な投資先とは言えないようです。
◎金 巨大な投機的な資金が流れ27年ぶりの高値にまで上がっている。投機資金がもっと膨らんだ時は逆張りす(売る)べきだ。
◎プラチナ 南アフリカの最大手のプラチナ鉱山の一時閉鎖などが原因で最高値を更新し続けている。もっと下がらなければ買わない。
◎銅 銅のように一直線に上がっているものは買いたくない。銅の価格は中国の需要増で5年連続値上がりした。
魅力的な投資先として銀とパラジウムそして砂糖(粗糖)をあげています。こうした最高値圏にない投資対象にあるコモディティに注目すべきとジム・ロジャーズは言っています。◎銀、パラジウム ともに過去最高値を75%下回っている。もし貴金属を買い増すなら銀やパラジウムを買うだろう。
◎砂糖(粗糖) 過去最高値を85%下回っている。
※10月24日のブルームバーグ(英文)の記事をもとに書いています。筆者英語に自信があるわけではないのでその点も踏まえて判断は自己責任でお願いします。
【原文】
Rogers Says Gold Likely to Be Outperformed by Silver, Palladium
By Danielle Rossingh and Nigel Stevenson
Oct. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Jim Rogers, who correctly predicted the commodities rally in 1999, said gold is likely to decline and it may be outperformed by silver and palladium.
``Right now there's a gigantic speculative long position in gold,'' Rogers, chairman of Beeland Interests Inc., said today in an interview from Milan. ``I'm waiting. When everybody is on one side of the boat you should move to the other side.''
Gold prices surged to a 27-year high of $771.10 an ounce on Oct. 19 in London, partly on speculation the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this month, spurring demand for the metal as an alternative investment to the dollar.
Speculative long positions in New York gold futures, or bets prices will rise, outnumbered short positions by 201,859 contracts in the week ended Oct. 16, the highest since at least January 1994, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data showed on Oct. 19.
Platinum ``would have to go down a lot more before I would buy,'' said Rogers, 65, who co-founded the Quantum hedge fund with George Soros in the 1970s. ``It's making new all-time highs. If I had to buy something new in the precious metals, I would buy silver or palladium.''
Platinum climbed to a record $1,460 on Oct. 19 on concern mine shutdowns in South Africa, the world's biggest producer, will curb supplies.
Silver and palladium are trading 75 percent below their all- time highs, while sugar is 85 percent below its record, Rogers said. ``You should be looking at that sort of thing.''
Rogers, who holds commodities through the Rogers International Commodity Index, said he ``doesn't like to buy things that are going straight up,'' such as copper. Copper prices have risen for five consecutive years on increased demand from China. Copper traded at a record $8,335 a metric ton in May.
Rogers is the author of ``Adventure Capitalist'' and ``Hot Commodities.''
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