５月８日（ブルームバーグ）：
ジム・ロジャーズ氏：世界の金融危機はまだ最悪期に達していない

　米投資家ジム・ロジャーズ氏は８日、米国の住宅ローン問題を震源とした世界の信用収縮の終わりはまだ遠いかもしれないと指摘した。

　　同氏はシンガポールで行われた英銀バークレイズの記者会見で、「金融危機が半分過ぎたというのは疑わしいと思う」として、「私の見方では、状況が底を打っていないことは確かだ」と述べた。

引用元記事

【原文】
Jim Rogers Says Financial Crisis Hasn't Hit Its Worst

May 8 (Bloomberg) -- Jim Rogers, co-founder of the Quantum Fund with George Soros, said the global credit squeeze triggered by U.S. housing-loan delinquencies may not be nearing an end.

``I doubt that we're half way through the financial crisis,'' Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings, said at a Barclays Plc press conference in Singapore. ``We certainly haven't hit the bottom as far as I'm concerned.''

Rogers' comments contradict those by heads of Wall Street investment banks and by Soros, who yesterday said the ``acute phase'' of the financial crisis is nearing an end even as the U.S. economy only now starts to feel the effect.

The world's largest banks and securities firms have posted $319 billion of asset writedowns and credit losses since the beginning of 2007, and slashed 65,000 jobs in the past 10 months as the crisis deepened.

``Most of the European banks and Asian banks haven't taken a huge write-off yet,'' Rogers said. ``I suspect there are more write-offs to come in Europe and Asia.''

Rogers said he isn't buying financial stocks and is betting on a further drop in the share prices of U.S. investment banks, Fannie Mae and home builders as the global credit crisis reduces investor appetite for all but the safest assets such as U.S. Treasury debt, depressing stock and bond prices.

Still, stocks have rallied since JPMorgan Chase & Co., the third-biggest U.S. bank, agreed to buy Bear Stearns Cos. with the Federal Reserve's backing almost two months ago. The MSCI World Index has gained 10 percent since touching a one-year low on March 17.

Citigroup Inc. Chief Executive Officer Vikram Pandit said April 22 that the credit-market contraction is abating, echoing remarks by Jamie Dimon, his counterpart at JPMorgan, who said April 16 that the credit-market freeze is more than half over. Richard Fuld, chief of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., Goldman Sachs Group Inc. CEO Lloyd Blankfein and Morgan Stanley head John Mack have offered similar assessments.

引用元記事

５月８日（ブルームバーグ）：
ジム・ロジャーズ氏：米ドルは上昇へ、弱気派が多過ぎる－円も購入

　米投資家ジム・ロジャーズ氏は８日、米ドルに弱気の投資家が多過ぎると指摘し、ドルが上昇するとの予想を示した。

　同氏はシンガポールで開催された「バークレイズ・グローバル・アグリカルチャー・デルタ・ファンド」の設立イベントで語り、ドルは世界の準備通貨としての地位を失いつつあり、中国人民元が「長期的」に準備通貨として優れているとの見方を示した。

　同氏はまた、オーストラリア、ニュージーランド、カナダなど資源国の通貨を保有しており、これらの通貨を有望視していると語った。また、円も買い入れたことを明らかにした。

引用元記事

【原文】
Rogers Says Dollar Will Rally, Too Many Are Bearish (Update2)

By Patricia Lui

May 8 (Bloomberg) -- Jim Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings, said too many investors are bearish on the U.S. dollar and the currency will have a ``nice'' rally.

The dollar has declined 4.9 percent against the euro this year as widening credit-market losses and slowing economic growth prompted the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates to head off a recession. Since Rogers said in an interview on April 27 that he expected a dollar rally ``about now,'' the currency has climbed 2 percent.

``I expect a nice rally in the American dollar because so many have been bearish on the American dollar including me,'' Rogers said at the launch of the Barclays Global Agriculture Delta Fund in Singapore today. ``America is also a huge producer of agriculture and if I'm right about agriculture prices, which I think will go up a lot, that's going to help America compared to those countries which don't have agriculture.''

The currency rose for a second day to trade at $1.5345 per euro as of 10:20 a.m. in London from $1.5392 in New York yesterday. The yen, which Rogers said he has been buying, climbed to 103.97 per dollar from 104.73.

Rogers said in last month's interview that he was hoping the dollar rally would last a year, which would allow him to sell all of his U.S. currency. Today, he said he holds the currencies of commodity producing nations of Australia, New Zealand and Canada, which he expects ``to do well.''

Australian Dollar

The Australian dollar fell 0.5 percent from late Asian trading to 94.2 U.S. cents as investors cut purchases of higher yielding currencies funded in Japanese yen. In so-called carry trades, investors get funds in a country with low borrowing costs and invest in one with higher interest rates, earning the spread between the two.

``People who produce commodities when commodities are going through the roof will do better all other things being equal,'' said Rogers, Rogers, who co-founded the Quantum fund with George Soros in the 1970s and correctly predicted the start of the commodities boom in 1999.

``The New Zealand and Australian dollar may get hurt if carry trades reverse,'' he said. I admit that I've also been buying the yen, but I'm not planning to sell my Australian dollars as they have a great future.''

He added that the dollar is losing its status as the world's reserve currency and is increasingly being replaced by the euro, the yen and sterling. On a 20-year outlook, the Chinese yuan is a likely replacement.

``But the only thing I can see on the horizon which can replace the dollar is the renminbi, which is an absurd statement as it is a blocked currency, but this is a longer term horizon, maybe in 20 years or so,'' he said. ``It cannot be the euro or the yen or the Swiss Franc.''

Rogers expects U.S. Treasuries to decline due to inflationary pressures.

``I have sold long-term U.S. government bonds,'' he said. ``If the same thing happens as it always happens in inflationary times, then rates are going much, much higher, especially long- term rates.''

Rogers said central banks may be effective in manipulating short-term interest rates ``but they can't do much with long term rates.''

引用元記事